Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 56.293236 62.695400 69.976777 78.973761 89.939629 103.073939 120.320727
2025-01-19 45.506195 53.100735 62.437840 75.076288 92.275901 115.776657 152.189861
2025-01-26 42.524829 51.454617 63.139118 80.226688 105.935149 145.972253 220.623682
2025-02-02 40.621385 50.617167 64.390129 85.936308 121.518674 184.783112 330.885368
2025-02-09 38.104134 48.484682 63.334366 87.778445 131.262131 217.956333 465.635541
2025-02-16 35.531114 45.911934 61.183171 87.324596 136.687851 245.289869 628.084044
2025-02-23 33.437937 43.785450 59.384160 87.038723 142.238170 276.114479 876.494994
2025-03-02 31.260132 41.318379 56.746332 84.801649 143.171950 296.079042 1151.813064
2025-03-09 29.473971 39.290994 54.590636 83.079765 144.754094 319.345139 1587.739749
2025-03-16 27.397977 36.670549 51.231095 78.653634 139.181878 317.402115 1824.072085
2025-03-23 26.909893 36.477360 51.865937 81.931828 152.710776 392.007016 4453.214040
2025-03-30 25.812793 35.238283 50.604124 81.262895 156.239923 433.020749 9845.384097
2025-04-06 24.480564 33.613042 48.666880 79.232662 156.445113 464.887427 31428.621027
2025-04-13 22.963107 31.614811 45.950505 75.300217 150.606477 463.543631 89609.708018
2025-04-20 22.893300 31.965780 47.414827 80.474815 172.927865 660.332715 NaN
2025-04-27 22.852872 32.354660 48.980970 86.212850 200.547144 1021.077058 NaN
2025-05-04 22.328061 31.881372 48.881850 88.064398 216.141445 1392.210504 NaN
2025-05-11 21.588081 30.990242 47.901445 87.608219 222.909434 1723.953303 NaN
2025-05-18 20.923372 30.192224 47.037954 87.320883 230.486383 2206.398179 NaN
2025-05-25 20.107838 29.088296 45.492491 85.072451 228.730321 2468.452018 NaN
2025-06-01 19.399172 28.141633 44.201352 83.341940 228.852631 2869.059082 NaN
2025-06-08 18.465465 26.760282 41.966852 78.894112 214.990142 2548.422699 NaN
2025-06-15 18.334583 26.801287 42.597288 82.188311 239.849280 5150.391609 NaN